Overvalued Kentucky Hosts South Carolina

The Kentucky Wildcats are still undefeated, but after one too many close calls, the NCAAB odds are beginning to move in the other direction. Kentucky (24-0 SU, 11-13 ATS) has dropped from 1/1 to 6/5 on the March Madness futures market ahead of Saturday’s matchup (2:00 PM ET, ESPN) with the visiting South Carolina Gamecocks. The Wildcats are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games, but the Gamecocks (12-11 SU, 8-13 ATS) have only covered once during the same span. Tuesday’s 71-69 win over the LSU Tigers (+9.5 at home) may have been enough to wake up the Wildcats. They had to fight back from a 66-60 deficit after allowing LSU to go on a 21-2 run, following an ill-advised technical foul by Karl-Anthony Towns for hanging on the rim. While Kentucky may still be carrying too much chalk, the Gamecocks have been awful at covering spreads. Tuesday’s 65-60 win over the shorthanded Missouri Tigers (+10.5 away) was almost derailed by another technical foul, but Laimonas Chatkevicius got away with throwing the ball hard to the floor, in front of an official. We’ll see which team wins the mental game on Saturday.